United States Institute of Peace

International Network for Economics and Conflict

Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014

Written by the World Bank

Transition—the full assumption of Afghan responsibility for security by end-2014, the drawdown of most international military forces and the likely reduction in overall assistance—will have a profound impact on Afghanistan’s economic and political landscape, extending well beyond 2014. This study assesses the medium to longer term impacts of declining aid and military spending on economic growth, poverty, fiscal management, service delivery and government capacity. It suggests options to Government of Afghanistan (GoA) and the international donor community to manage and mitigate the adverse impacts of transition while exploiting the opportunities to improve aid effectiveness and encourage inclusive growth. This is the beginning of the process – additional analysis from the World Bank will develop these themes further over the coming months.

To read the paper, click here.

To view the PowerPoint presentation, click here.