Conflict Experiences and Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda
Written by Carlos Bozzoli, Tilman Brück and Tony Muhumuza
This paper analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. The authors hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. They combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). The authors run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.
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