International Network for Economics and Conflict

*This is a joint posting with Natalie Nasrallah, Indepedent Research Consultant in International Development

Many challenges lie ahead as Afghanistan prepares for life after the planned 2014 draw-down of international troops.  Naturally, a lot of attention has focused on the country’s vast mineral resources because of the potential fiscal and economic development gains over the medium term.  Afghanistan’s water resources have been relatively sidelined in this debate.  There is sufficient evidence that the evolving demand and increasingly constrained supply of water resources in Afghanistan could create tensions that could result in violent conflict. The demand for water to satisfy the country’s changing needs far exceeds the availability, and this competition is adding pressure to an already fragile region.  It is clear that the supply of freshwater will not keep pace with demand absent innovative and integrated approaches to resource management. 

Afghanistan’s water-security nexus has many dimensions.  Implications for food security are evident.  In the mid-1970s, Afghanistan was almost self-sufficient in food supply. Decades of conflict have caused land degradation, rural migration and damaged/neglected water sources (especially irrigation infrastructure). In addition, climate shocks and poor water management have reduced the country’s wheat production. In 2011, wheat production was 28% lower than 2010 and 36% lower than 2009. Afghanistan now has to import a significant portion of its wheat.  Food security for vulnerable communities is affected by inflation, high unemployment rates and reduced domestic harvests. Increased water scarcity, food insecurity and the inability to adapt to climate changes threaten incidences of violence over land/water access and tenure.

Domestic consumption is another area where human security is adversely affected.  Afghanistan suffers from shortages in safe drinking water and inadequate wastewater management systems, which affect the health of both urban and rural populations.  Only 31% of households in Afghanistan have access to safe drinking water and only 5-7% have access to safe sanitary facilities.  Water contamination is widespread.

Hydropower is a source of affordable renewable energy and is a low-carbon fuel source, making it capable to deal with water scarcity.  The UN estimates that Afghanistan could develop an additional 23,000 megawatts of hydro-generating capacity from its major river basins, if the resources are well managed.  However, hydropower projects are controversial not only in inducing violent conflict with local populations, but also with neighboring countries. 

Afghanistan has suffered from years of drought, and its ground water is estimated to have depleted by more than 50% in recent years.   Poverty, lack of income-generating opportunities, poor infrastructure and chronic health problems make the people of Afghanistan ever more vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters and climate change.   Given that this country depends almost entirely on natural resources to meet its basic needs, uncoordinated management of water resources and irrigation systems could precipitate inter-communal and inter-state violence during periods of drought.

There is also an acute lack of information on water availability and usage in Afghanistan.  Existing water laws do not clearly define water rights and oversight institutions are weak.  In practice, land ownership defines rights to access water, which tends to exclude landless populations, including farmers and women.  Afghanistan requires strong institutional capacity to deal with the water shocks and stresses of natural disasters, climate change and shifts in water supply and demand.  There is an urgent need to prioritize water security issues in Afghanistan.  Immediate steps should be taken to evaluate the relationship between water, energy and security in the context of Afghanistan’s national development strategies and trans-boundary water management considerations.  Furthermore, the government and its international partners should consider promoting dialogue between development practitioners, local communities, and government agencies when formulating policies on water resource management.  This would bode well for both local ownership and policy effectiveness.

While competition for water can contribute to conflict, it can also serve as a catalyst for peaceful cooperation on larger issues. Sustainable water resource management is key to helping promote long-term peace, growth and prosperity.    Proper use of water resource technology can improve overall water quality and distribution and increase efficiency in agriculture, electrical power generation and industrial activities.  Sufficient clean water supplies are needed to generate electrical power and to maintain, as well as expand, manufacturing and resource extraction. Simple water management improvements, such as land leveling in the Amu Darya Basin, could save 2,000 cubic meters of water for each of the 4 million hectares of irrigated area, totaling 8 billion cubic meters annually throughout the basin.[1]    

However, development requires regional cooperation. Failure to establish shared water management principles could add pressure to vulnerable communities and aggravate existing economic and political tensions, including poverty, social friction, environmental degradation and weak institutions within Afghanistan and across the region. The government could develop  a framework that integrates the planning, development and management of water resources and energy systems simultaneously to ensure sustainable economic output.  As Afghanistan works to rebuild its political and socio-economic structures, it has the unique opportunity to adopt innovative strategies for cleaner production and environmental protection. In conjunction, Afghanistan should plan for regional cooperation in water and energy use that can meet growing energy demands and mitigate the effects of water scarcity, thus helping to secure long-term peace, growth and prosperity. 

[1] U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. 2012. “Global Water Security.” Intelligence Community Assessment 2012-08, 2 February 2012.