International Network for Economics and Conflict

According to an Intelligence Community (IC) report released in February 2012, expected shortages in fresh water supplies and increased incidences of droughts and floods could lead to water being used as a weapon between states and as a terrorist target in some of the most vulnerable and volatile regions, especially the Middle East. With the region undergoing historical political transformations and immensely uncertain futures, neglecting the realities of water shortages and proper water management could lead to a new source of tension for the region in the very near future. Thus, it is vital that water management be given serious attention in the policy frameworks of both the new governments and international assistance programs for sustainable economic prosperity to be realized.
 
Eighteen of the 30 nations that the United Nations projects to be water scarce by 2025 are in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate change, population growth and rapid industrialization are increasing the demand for access to fresh water. Annual availability to water scarce countries in the Middle East averages about 200 m3 per person – 35 times less than the global average. This scarcity risks destabilizing governments and increasing regional tensions through the inability to produce food for growing populations, to provide adequate water services and to generate reliable energy.
 
Some hydrologists predict that Yemen’s depleting underground aquifers could dry up in the next ten years. The majority of the country’s water comes from groundwater, which is often randomly and ineptly drilled. In a country that faces deep-rooted tribal divisions, water shortages could further aggravate its political and economic problems. A McKinsey and Company report estimates that Yemen’s poor water management and overconsumption for farming water- inefficient crops, such as the stimulant khat, could cost the poorest Arab country 750,000 jobs and a 25% reduction in incomes by 2025. Scarcity combined with weak water authorities could further cripple the relations between secessionist groups and the government.
 
Tensions over access, distribution and infrastructure in the Middle East are all too common, preventing more coordination and joint projects from transpiring, as is the case with the Nile River. Egypt maintains rights to 66% of the river’s annual flow and is known for threatening to go to war over any reduction to this amount, particularly against Ethiopia, which has no formal rights to the Nile but from where 86% of its waters flowing to Egypt originate. The Nile Basin Initiative seeks to ease such tensions by coordinating agreements and joint management plans, but the organization is strained because of Egypt’s power. The danger is that states could increasingly use water as leverage over neighboring countries to preserve their water interests as scarcity becomes more prevalent.
 
The fairness of distribution has long been a point of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. Israel’s consumption of fresh water per capita is about four times that of Palestinians. About a third of West Bank communities still lack network services and pay as much as ten times more for their water. A 2009 World Bank water assessment states that Palestinians extract only 20% of the groundwater’s estimated potential, while Israel extracts the remainder and overdraws by more than 50%, risking the future of the aquifers as recharge declines. Furthermore, Palestinian investments in infrastructure and utility performance are weak, which strain an already variable economy. The World Bank estimates that the cost of the foregone opportunity of irrigated agriculture may be as high as 10% of GDP and 110,000 jobs. While there has not yet been direct violence associated with water, the constant impasse in a final peace agreement inhibits integrated resource management and sustainable water development and threatens more insecurity.
 
Outright war over water alone remains to be seen. But with large-scale agribusiness, mining and energy production increasingly controlling resources at the expense of individuals having access to potable water, local flashpoints are more and more likely. The most noteworthy point gleaned from the IC report is that the risks to water rest heavily on public and private stakeholders maintaining the status quo in water management. It assumes that no significant improvements will be developed or deployed in water technologies and policies. Unless significant efforts are made to reverse these assumptions, lives and livelihoods are reaching a crucial turning point. The price of innovation is far lower than the alternative: water shortages and violence. What remains is political will. With this life-sustaining resource dwindling at a frightening pace, lasting solutions need integrated strategies, broader global outreach and rapid implementation.
 
Lack of water for the people in the Middle East should not be viewed as an inevitable fate. Scarcity is just as much a product of social construct (waste, pollution and unsustainable management) as it is environment (climate change and uneven distribution). Thus, implementing innovative approaches to natural resource management is key to lasting peace and prosperity.